Schrödinger’s War Comes Due

Trump’s Iran conflict is somehow over, ongoing, not responsible, and wildly expensive, while the bill shows up in polling, prices, supply chains, the Pentagon, and everyone’s grocery cart.

Good morning! Happy birthday to Marz, well and truly middle-aged in dog years and still a footwear terrorist. Some things age gracefully. Others just get more efficient at destruction. Honestly, there’s a metaphor in there somewhere, but we’ll get to that.

Let’s start with the numbers, because they’re doing a better job telling the truth than anyone in power right now. Donald Trump’s approval rating has slid to 34%—the lowest of his second term. The decline isn’t just about policy; it’s about the brand. Fewer Americans think he keeps his promises. Fewer think he’s mentally sharp. Even the diehard framing, Trump as the guy who “stands up for what he believes in” is slipping. Most telling of all, a majority of Americans now say ethics and honesty in government have declined under his watch.

Before anyone on the other side starts celebrating, there’s a catch: Americans don’t like them either. Roughly six in ten view both the Republican and Democratic parties unfavorably. And a growing share, now about a quarter of the country, has decided the correct answer to “which party do you trust?” is “no.” The bases still love their own teams, of course, but the independents are drifting, and not in a “let’s find common ground” kind of way. In fact, voters in both camps increasingly want their leaders to fight harder, not cooperate. Unity has left the building, taken the stairs, and is currently blocking everyone on its way out. Which brings us to the war, the thing quietly driving almost everything else you’re about to read.

Two months in, the New York Times is saying the quiet part out loud: this is a costly, unpopular war with no clear endgame. The Pentagon has already burned through $25 billion, energy markets are still in turmoil, allies are peeling away, and even Republicans are starting to get twitchy. Trump, naturally, insists he has no regrets: “I did something that was, I don’t know, foolish, brave, but it was smart,” he told supporters. “I would do it again.”

And the messaging? A mess. One day Iran wants a deal. The next day, maybe it’s not worth making one. After rejecting Iran’s latest proposal, Trump said, “…frankly, maybe we’re better off not making a deal at all.” A Republican strategist summed it up nicely: “The messaging has been more than a mess.” Basically, a mood swing with a press release attached.

Which is how you end up with what might be the most accurate description of this entire situation: Schrödinger’s War. It’s over when Trump wants credit. It’s ongoing when prices rise. It’s not responsible when things collapse. And somehow, it’s still proof of strength.

Take the view from abroad. Analysts like Trita Parsi are blunt: the blockade didn’t bring Iran to the table; it may have actually made things worse, pushing oil prices higher even during a ceasefire and increasing pressure on the U.S. at home. Trump managed to get the ceasefire and curtail use of a dwindling weapons stockpile and then sabotaged the benefits of his own ceasefire. That takes a certain talent.

While Washington argues about who to blame, the consequences are starting to show up in places that don’t care about political spin. Spirit Airlines, one of the last truly cheap ways for working families to fly, has collapsed. Travelers stranded, employees out of work, flights canceled across the country. Officials say the company was already struggling. Critics point to jet fuel prices nearly doubling amid the Iran war. Both can be true because fragile systems don’t need a cause, just a push.

The next layer: manufacturing. Detroit’s automakers are warning of a $5 billion hit from rising commodity costs tied to the war, everything from aluminum to plastics to logistics. Your next car is about to get more expensive. Perhaps not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon.

If that feels abstract, let’s make it less so. There are growing warnings about global food supply stress, what some are calling a “quadruple hit”: war, extreme heat, El Niño, and trade disruptions all converging at once. Fertilizer supplies are being squeezed by the conflict. Fuel shortages are affecting farming operations. Heat is already cutting crop yields. And tariffs are breaking the normal safety valves that would balance shortages across borders.

This is how systemic problems start. Prices creeping up. Supply chains tightening. Experts using phrases like “compounding risk” instead of “temporary disruption.” You don’t need to panic, but you’d be foolish not to pay attention.

Here’s the part that really ties it together: while all of this is happening, the markets are doing just fine. Thriving, even. Record highs. Optimism everywhere. Which might sound reassuring until you remember that “the markets” and “the economy” stopped being the same thing sometime around when regular people stopped being able to afford either. A few tech stocks are having a moment. The algorithms are happy. The people who own most of the equities are the people who were already fine. Wall Street is partying like it’s a golden age, and Main Street is checking the exits.

All of which assumes the people in charge are capable of managing what they’ve set in motion. Inside the Pentagon, things are… not great. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has reportedly fired or forced out 24 senior military leaders, many with impeccable records, in what insiders describe as a purge driven more by ideology than performance. Retired Major General Paul Eaton warned, “I believe that the senior leadership of the US military has been substantially damaged,” adding that if officers haven’t been purged, they may wonder if they are next “if you say the wrong thing.” The result is exactly what you’d expect: a leadership vacuum, a culture of fear, and growing concern that the people who might normally push back against dangerous decisions are gone—or keeping their heads down.

Which is where Congressman Jason Crow comes in and says what too many are still tiptoeing around. In a recent interview, Crow didn’t just question a hiring decision or a procedural shortcut. He questioned Hegseth’s fitness to hold power at all, calling him not merely incompetent but “a vengeful individual” whose character makes him genuinely dangerous. That’s a congressman on record. About the Secretary of Defense.

The Defense Department is not a cable-news green room. It’s a place where character matters. Judgment and restraint matter. When those things are missing, the consequences aren’t rhetorical; they’re real.

Speaking of consequences, let’s talk about ICE. The agency has just awarded a new contract to MVM, Inc., a private contractor already being sued over its alleged role in Trump’s first-term family separation policy. According to the complaint, MVM wasn’t just moving paperwork. It was physically transporting separated children, misleading them about where they were going, and helping operate a system that effectively erased families in practice.

A federal judge has allowed core claims to proceed, including allegations tied to enforced disappearance and child abduction.

Now this same company has been rewarded again and hired to conduct “wellness checks” on undocumented children. Nothing quite says child welfare like sending in the contractor accused of helping disappear children the first time.

The government calls it policy. ICE calls it safety. The contractor calls it a contract. But at some point, “just doing your job” stops being a defense and starts becoming the evidence.

Finally, because the hits just keep coming, we get to women’s healthcare. A federal appeals court has temporarily blocked access to the abortion pill mifepristone by mail, forcing patients to obtain it in person, even though it has been widely used safely for decades and accounts for the majority of abortions in the U.S. .

It is not about new science. It’s about power, legal and political, overriding medical consensus. Providers are scrambling to adapt, shifting to less optimal alternatives, trying to maintain care under shifting rules that seem designed more for control than for outcomes. The people making these decisions aren’t the ones sitting in exam rooms, and it shows.

This is the part where a reasonable person might ask what, exactly, you’re supposed to do with all of this. The honest answer is: pay attention, because the people making these decisions are counting on you not to. War is easier to sustain when it’s abstract. A purge is easier to execute when no one’s watching. Contractors get rehired when the original scandal fades. The pill gets restricted when the fight feels too exhausting to keep having. None of this is accidental because exhaustion is a policy tool.

Marz is still chewing guests’ shoes, thereby displaying a level of consistency that would be refreshing in just about every other arena right now. For the record, he would be chewing my shoes as well except he has trained me to always put them up. Off for a birthday romp.