Trump’s War, America’s Inflation Bill

Oil is surging, the Fed is warning of higher prices, and yet another Trump show of force ends the way his “strength” always does: with chaos, dead Americans, and ordinary folks stuck with the bill

For a president who has spent most of his brief political life selling himself as the human embodiment of strength, prosperity, and manly competence, Donald Trump has a remarkable talent for making everything more expensive, more unstable, and more soaked in unforced errors.

That pattern is playing out again now, in real time. As the war has widened, strikes have hit major energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Live reporting from the Financial Times said Brent crude jumped above $110 a barrel after attacks on Gulf energy facilities, including reported extensive damage around Qatar’s Ras Laffan terminal, the world’s largest LNG hub. Other live market trackers were still a touch lower and lagging, but they also showed Brent surging sharply on March 18, with Trading Economics putting it around $108.98 after a huge one-day move.

There it is: the bill. Not the speech, or the choreographed footage of serious men walking solemnly past flags while cable anchors lower their voices by half an octave to let you know history is happening. The f*@king bill. Oil spikes, fuel costs rise, shipping gets rattled, gas markets tighten, and the inflation everybody was already sick of suddenly gets another boot to the ribs.

Jay Powell is saying the obvious part out loud now. The Fed chair said higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, which is economist-speak for: congratulations, the geopolitical arson has now made its way into your grocery bill, your commute, your utility costs, your delivery fees, and every other corner of daily life where ordinary people are expected to absorb the consequences of elite recklessness with a brave little smile.

This is the part where the Trump mythology starts to look especially ridiculous. His fans still talk about him as if he were some sort of master mechanic of the economy, a man who can simply glare at global markets until prosperity breaks out. But markets are not impressed by machismo; they react to risk, disruption, bottlenecks, and war. They especially react when missiles start flying around infrastructure tied to the global flow of oil and liquefied natural gas.

As if to complete the full theater-of-power tableau, Trump and Pete Hegseth participated in a closed dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base for another U.S. airmen killed while supporting Operation Epic Fury. There is something almost unbearably on brand about that image: the solemn ritual, the sealed cameras, the reverent staging, the spectacle of command. Meanwhile the broader consequences keep spreading outward, dead service members, widening regional instability, and a fresh economic shock rolling straight toward households already stretched thin.

Trumpism in its purest form markets domination and produces disorder. The aesthetic they are hoping for is strength, but the substance is collateral damage. Under all the flag-wrapped theatrics, the result is the same as ever: chaos for the country and cover for the people who caused it. The branding says commander; the outcomes say accelerant.

The international fallout is no less grotesque. A topic we touched on previously is raised again when The Financial Times editorial board argued that Trump’s war on Iran is effectively a gift to Vladimir Putin, because rising energy prices fatten Russian revenues, sanctions discipline weakens under pressure, and military resources that should be helping Ukraine are pulled toward the Middle East instead. That is the sort of own goal that would be funny if it were not so dangerous: launch another grand show of force, light up global energy markets, and accidentally toss Moscow a cash bonus for the trouble. It takes a special kind of incompetence to cosplay as a geopolitical mastermind while helping the Kremlin run up the scoreboard.

Of course the defenders will still insist this is all evidence of seriousness. They always do. Every failure is repackaged as resolve, and every mess is marketed as leverage. Every unnecessary escalation is presented as some exquisite three-dimensional chess move that only the very stupid or very disloyal could fail to appreciate. Then the prices rise, the body count rises, the strategic confusion rises, and somehow we are all expected to pretend nobody could have seen it coming.

Plenty of people saw it coming. Hell, this grandmother in rural Oregon saw it. Blow up stability around critical energy corridors, and oil prices surge. Expand the war, and inflation risks climb right along with them. Then comes the usual farce: the same man posing as a guardian of prosperity while striking matches near the machinery of the global economy. Trump gets the photo op. Everybody else gets the consequences.

It is another familiar Trump production: loud, reckless, expensive, and drenched in self-congratulation. He breaks the table, announces that only he can fix tables, and then sends the repair bill to the public.

If anyone still believes Trump is going to rescue the U.S. economy, they should stop listening to the merchandise slogans and start looking at the oil chart. Look at the Fed warnings, at the widening war, and at the flag-draped transfer cases arriving home while the administration pretends this is all under control. That is the real picture now. Trump’s version of leadership has turned out to be all costume, no competence.