If anyone thought British and European alarm over Donald Trump’s latest moves was overblown, Russia’s newspapers offered a rather revealing rebuttal. They spent the weekend writing thank-you notes.
The present arrived on October 9, two days after Vladimir Putin turned 74, and Komsomolskaya Pravda knew exactly what to call it: a gift. A beautiful deal, the paper gushed, an easing of sanctions, an expression of gratitude from an American president “so in need of that outstretched hand” from Moscow. Its plans for the windfall were refreshingly candid. Fill the coffers, play up to Trump, and leave Zelenskyy in a no-win situation.
Kommersant, Russia’s leading business daily, reduced the transaction to a headline: “Friendship in exchange for diesel.” Moskovsky Komsomolets took more of a victory lap. For the first time, the tabloid observed, “what Trump is offering is truly beneficial to Russia.” Moscow should use the opportunity “to hammer Ukraine back to the stone age and force it to make peace on Russia’s terms.” The newspaper of the Russia-Belarus Union State skipped the analysis and went straight to the eulogy, scripting Trump’s farewell to Zelenskyy: “Exit now. Goodbye.”
These weren’t Kremlin communiqués. They were the headlines and commentary BBC correspondent Steve Rosenberg found in Russia’s newspapers. But the enthusiasm was unmistakable. Gloating is also messaging.
The most revealing detail came from Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the Russian government’s own newspaper. It blamed the global rise in oil and fuel prices on “the crisis in the Middle East,” which, as Rosenberg pointed out, means Trump’s own war with Iran. Then it described the American president’s game with unnerving precision: convincing Americans that their pain at the pump comes not from the Middle East but from Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
So what, exactly, did Washington hand Moscow, and why?
Twenty-Eight Days
Five days before signing one of the toughest Russia sanctions packages in years, Donald Trump stood at his golf club in Doonbeg, Ireland, and told reporters that Zelenskyy “has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” because “that’s hurting the world.” Hold that thought. It’s the whole month in miniature.
Sept. 18. Trump signs the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, named for the South Carolina senator who spent more than a year building bipartisan support for it before he died in July. The law targets Russian officials, banks, the energy and defense sectors, and the shadow fleet of tankers carrying Russian oil. It also authorizes tariffs of 100 percent on major purchasers of Russian energy and countries helping Moscow evade sanctions. Zelenskyy calls it “an extremely powerful tool.”
Oct. 9 (day 21). Trump gets off the phone with Putin and announces that Russia will “immediately” supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and another million afterward. An additional 3 million tons, he writes, will follow “based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries.” The largest promised shipment thus depends on the condition of the very refineries Trump wants Ukraine to stop hitting. Treasury issues a license the same day allowing Russian diesel transactions through April 7, 2027. “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority,” the president explains. Remember the farmers. They come back.
Oct. 9 - 10, Miami. Trump’s diesel announcement catches Ukrainian, European, and NATO officials off guard as they meet with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to discuss ending Russia’s war. During those talks, the American envoys propose releasing some of Moscow’s frozen sovereign assets into a financial vehicle overseen by Washington. European representatives reject the idea.
Oct. 10 (day 22). Trump says Ukraine needs a new president. Elon Musk joins the criticism, posting that “Zelensky has gone too far.” Around this period, according to Zelenskyy, American military officials deliver their own message to Ukrainian counterparts: stop attacking Russian energy infrastructure or risk losing American intelligence.
Oct. 11 (day 23). “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine,” Trump announces. “Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” The announcement is news to Zelenskyy, and Russia has not publicly accepted the supposed agreement either. A White House official later explains to Axios that the proposed ceasefire covers only oil refineries, refinery for refinery. Russia has an extensive network of them. Ukraine has one, repeatedly damaged by Russian attacks and not fully operational. Kyiv halts its energy strikes anyway.
Oct. 13–14 (days 25–26). During Ukraine’s three-day pause, Russia launches a massive assault on the energy infrastructure Trump’s “ENERGY CEASEFIRE” appeared to protect. The barrage includes 39 missiles of several types, many approaching their targets on ballistic trajectories, and 128 drones. According to Ukraine’s prime minister, all three of Kyiv’s combined heat-and-power plants are attacked. At least 600,000 people lose electricity. Ukraine’s Air Force says it received no advance warning from its partners before the first wave, although warnings arrived before three subsequent waves.
Around the same time, another crucial Ukrainian lifeline begins to falter. We’ll come back to it.
Oct. 16 (day 28). Two days before the Graham Act’s major new penalties are scheduled to take effect, Trump signs an executive order waiving most of them. The order says he has certified to Congress that suspending the penalties serves the national interest and submitted the required explanation.
Twenty-eight days from signature to waiver. Lindsey Graham spent more than a year assembling sanctions intended to pressure Putin. The law remains on the books, but Trump suspended most of its new penalties before they could even take effect.
The Fuel-Price Fiction
The economic case Trump has offered for his Russian diesel deal depends heavily on the accusation he made in Ireland: Ukrainian refinery strikes, rather than the war in the Middle East, are responsible for America’s diesel shortage.
The numbers tell a different story. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates estimated that disruptions in Russia and the Middle East had removed roughly 2 million barrels of diesel a day from world markets, approximately 800,000 associated with Russia and the remaining 1.2 million with the Middle East crisis. Ukrainian strikes have damaged Russian refining capacity, but the war with Iran has also severely disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and production elsewhere in the region.
The timing is even less helpful to Trump’s explanation. Ukrainian drones were already striking Russian refineries in the summer of 2025, when American diesel averaged about $3.74 a gallon. Prices remained relatively stable through February 2026. Then, on February 28, the United States and Israel went to war with Iran. By March, diesel had jumped to nearly $5 a gallon. By September, it averaged more than $6.29.
Russia’s export restrictions are real, and the loss of Russian diesel has contributed to a global shortage. But the Middle East disruption is larger, and the sharpest price increases followed the outbreak of the war Trump initiated. Make the mess, assign the bill.
The proposed cure is smaller still. The first two Russian shipments, totaling 800,000 metric tons, amount to roughly 6 million barrels, equivalent to about a day and a half of American diesel demand. Those deliveries are spread over weeks and intended for global markets, not exclusively American customers. Diesel futures initially fell on the announcement, but analysts questioned whether the additional supply would produce lasting relief. The Wall Street Journal reports broad agreement among energy experts that the Iran war is the principal driver of higher prices and the Russian deal is unlikely to move the market much.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright has offered another justification, arguing that allowing Russia to sell more diesel gives Putin an incentive to negotiate. The administration also retains the power to restore the waived sanctions. Whether Moscow responds by reducing its attacks remains to be seen. On Monday, Izvestia reported that the diesel agreement had yet to produce any meaningful effect on the market.
Trump announced the reward before securing the behavior it was supposed to encourage. In the meantime, Russia kept attacking Ukraine.
Which brings us back to Trump’s great farmers. During a debate last week, Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa, offered a rather practical objection from a state where diesel powers everything from tractors to combines: “We need to lower diesel prices, but I don’t think we need to be making a deal with Russia to do it.”
Old Business
None of this requires a secret. Trump’s pursuit of Russian business predates Putin’s presidency.
He toured prospective Moscow hotel sites in 1987. In October 2015, already a presidential candidate, he signed a letter of intent for Trump Tower Moscow. Michael Cohen sought help from Putin’s spokesman, and negotiations continued into June 2016. Weeks later, Trump claimed the “closest I came to Russia” was selling a Palm Beach mansion “to a Russian for $100 million.” Dmitry Rybolovlev paid $95 million for a property Trump had bought for $41.35 million. He never lived there, and the mansion was demolished.
In 2019, Trump’s Treasury lifted sanctions on companies linked to Putin ally Oleg Deripaska over the objections of 11 Republican senators, Marco Rubio among them. Deripaska himself remained sanctioned.
The connections have a newer chapter. ProPublica reported in September that Russian oligarch Umar Kremlev, close to Putin, spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on two nights of festivities surrounding Donald Trump Jr.’s May wedding. The couple confirmed the gift. Trump dismissed it as “Not a big deal!” Meanwhile, sanctioned Russian investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev has pursued sweeping economic cooperation with Washington, a proposed package Zelenskyy says could total $12 trillion.
“Business is interesting between the United States and Russia,” Zelenskyy told the Financial Times. He expects gas to be next.
None of this establishes why Trump eased sanctions this month. But the financial history is public, and it didn’t begin with diesel.
Washington eased restrictions on Russian fuel. Days later, Ukrainian drone crews discovered new restrictions on the satellite links guiding their aircraft.
