Cocksure and Clueless

Bertrand Russell, the Dunning-Kruger Effect, and the Rise of the Confidently Wrong

"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." Bertrand Russell

This idea reflects Russell’s Paradox of Ignorance, which aligns with what’s now called the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias where incompetent people overestimate their abilities, while highly competent people tend to underestimate theirs because they’re more aware of what they don’t know.

"The very thing that would help us see our mistakes is the same thing that would keep us from making them in the first place."

MTG is practically a walking case study of the Dunning-Kruger effect in action, loud, confident, and utterly convinced of her own expertise, despite all evidence to the contrary. Bertrand Russell would have had a field day analyzing her brand of misplaced certainty.

It’s a fitting observation for today’s political climate, where the loudest voices often come from those least burdened by self-doubt or factual accuracy.

Originally published February 26, 2025, on the Oregon’s Bay Area Facebook page.