Bargaining with the Tiger

Trump bluffs, the markets panic, the Pentagon leaks, ICE smashes, and the tiger does not flinch.

Good morning! It’s Monday in America, and the markets are hungover, gold is soaring, and ICE is swinging axes at asylum seekers again. Pope Francis has ascended, Pete Hegseth is still somehow Secretary of Defense, and Elon Musk is trying to wage a holy war against wokeness, presumably while Neuralink uploads a new firmware update to his ego.

Let’s begin at the Vatican, where the world said goodbye to Pope Francis, humble, controversial, and the last global leader who could talk about love without a trademark symbol. He died at 88, buried not in Vatican opulence but at St. Mary Major, as per his request. A rare voice of conscience gone quiet, just as the world could use a little moral clarity.

Back in Washington, moral clarity is still missing in action. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has turned the Pentagon into a live-action reenactment of Fox & Friends: Classified Edition. After leaking military strike plans in a private Signal chat with his wife (his former mistress), his brother Phil, and a few MAGA drinking buddies, even Trump allies are begging for his removal. The chat, titled “Defense Team Huddle,” did not include a single member of the actual defense team, but did apparently include family group selfies and maybe some emoji-laden bombing schedules.

Meanwhile, on the eastern front, Putin declared a ceasefire for Easter. A pious-sounding pause for peace, the kind that earns headlines and photo ops. But for Ukraine, it was a 30-hour lie. Russia launched nearly 100 ground assaults and 1,800 total attacks during the “truce,” using white flags not just to retrieve their dead, but also, per Ukrainian drone footage, to sneakily lift landmines and reinforce trenches. “Ceasefire,” in this case, was just Russian for “cover operation.” The West’s reaction? Muted. And from Trump? Nothing. The man who once claimed he alone could stop the war can’t even stop Putin’s Easter cosplay.

Over in the economy, investors are sprinting toward gold like it’s the apocalypse, and honestly, maybe it is. Gold cracked $3,400 an ounce this morning, a new record, as confidence in the U.S. dollar swan-dived following Trump’s renewed threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell, you’ll recall, had the audacity to say that tariffs would cause inflation. Trump responded with a tantrum and a veiled job threat, as if the Federal Reserve were an intern who spilled coffee. Markets are now trying to figure out which end is up, while gold shrugs and whispers, “I told you so.”

To avoid being outdone on the geopolitical front, China has sanctioned several U.S. officials and NGO heads in retaliation for Hong Kong sanctions. Their warning to the world was poetic: trying to extract concessions from China is like “bargaining with a tiger for its skin.” And yet, Trump is going full Animal Planet, badgering 70+ countries to join his anti-China coalition, with no trade rep, no ambassador, and no plan. It’s a poker game where the U.S. is bluffing with no cards, and China is the tiger watching with bemused indifference.

Speaking of poker, let’s not forget Nayib Bukele’s latest stunt: proposing a prisoner swap with Nicolás Maduro. He wants to exchange Venezuelan deportees held in El Salvador’s mega-prison for political prisoners in Caracas. Never mind that many of these deportees have no formal charges. Bukele is now openly playing poker with human lives, using U.S. deportation policy as a bargaining chip in his authoritarian side hustle.

And here at home, ICE is back to its old habits, with new tools. In Massachusetts, federal agents smashed a car window and dragged out Juan Francisco-Mendez, a Guatemalan asylum seeker who wasn't even the person they were looking for. His wife and 9-year-old watched it happen. Days earlier, in Maryland, they did the same thing to a woman named Elsy Berrios. Different names, same story: due process tossed aside like yesterday’s Fourth Amendment. This is performance art for the regime.

Elon Musk has taken another swig of digital sacrament and declared, once again, a holy war, not on poverty, not on misinformation, not even on the dwindling quality of Tesla’s panel gaps, but on “wokeness.” Reposting a Tucker Carlson clip like it’s a Dead Sea Scroll, Musk warned that the “woke mind virus” is the new religion, complete with heresies, holy wars, and stubborn zealots. The irony, of course, is that Musk has constructed his own cult: a gospel of grievance, a high priesthood of crypto bros, and a temple called X that profits from moral panic. He claims the secular are seeking meaning through progressive causes. Perhaps. But there’s no deeper emptiness than a billionaire projecting spiritual warfare from the luxury seats of authoritarianism while clutching the incense burner of outrage clicks.

But maybe the most on-brand scandal of the morning belongs to Karoline Leavitt. Trump’s press secretary, ever the patriotic mouthpiece, reportedly managed to refund $12,000 in campaign funds to her own family, even as her failed congressional campaign still owes over $320,000 to more than 100 other donors. It’s unclear whether she prayed about this decision, but her financial ethics appear to run on vibes, nepotism, and just a hint of prosperity gospel.

And then there were the protests, massive, nationwide, impassioned. Over 700 events in all 50 states. But they happened on a weekend, so the White House ignored them. Not a word. Not even a sneer. Because weekend protests, however righteous, do not disrupt power, they decorate it. They give democracy a moment of theater without rewriting the script. As we’ve said before: when sharks fight, the shrimp gets crushed, but only if the shrimp stays quiet and orderly.

Today, the shrimp are still organizing. The sharks are still circling. And the tiger? It’s waiting patiently, unimpressed by declarations, sanctions, and slogans. After all, if you try to trade for its skin, it won’t negotiate. It’ll pounce.